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Property Insider Reveals: Why Some New Launch Buyers Make $660K While Others Barely Break Even
Feb 25, 2026
Property Insider
It comes down to one factor most buyers never check before signing their OTP. Make sure you read this if you’re considering a new launch.
In 2019, a developer quietly priced a Bidadari condo at $1,733 psf — an area most Singaporeans still associated with a cemetery.
Six years later, owners are sitting on $500,000 to $660,000 in profit per unit.
Meanwhile, buyers who paid $2,461 psf for a "safer" project in a mature estate are watching their numbers crawl.
The difference wasn't luck, timing, or a nicer pool.
It was the transformation stage they bought into — something most buyers never evaluate.
And right now, that factor matters more than it has in years.
The Government Cycle Is About to Shift
"30 years of Singapore property data. The pattern has never broken."
HDB resale prices grew just 2.9% in 2025 — the weakest since 2019.
By Q4, quarterly growth hit 0.0%.
Most people see that and think: wait.
But Singapore's property market has followed the same cycle for 30 years, through 13 sets of cooling measures:
Strong buying → Uptrend → Cooling measures → Moderated buying → Slow growth → Policy relaxation → Strong buying again.
Every single time.
We're currently in the "slow growth" phase. The next move is relaxation. And it's already being signalled:
Minister Chee Hong Tat has publicly stated the 15-month wait-out period may be relaxed before 2027
The Business Times is calling for higher income ceilings for BTO and EC buyers
When relaxation hits, demand surges. And the buyers who positioned before that surge are the ones who profit most.
But here's the critical part: not all new launches benefit equally.
The Transformation Certainty Matrix: The One Factor That Separates $660K Gains From $60K
Whether the market goes up or down, one factor consistently determines property performance: the stage of urban transformation the surrounding area is in when you buy.
The URA Master Plan — which most buyers never read — lays out exactly where billions in infrastructure spending will go.
That spending creates three distinct stages. The stage you buy into determines your upside.
Stage 1: Planning Certainty (Early Entry)
Master Plan announced. Zoning confirmed. Nothing built yet.
Prices are low. Lowest entry prices in the entire cycle.
Example: Paya Lebar Airbase — announced 2013, confirmed in the 2025 Master Plan.
800 hectares of mixed-use development connected by the Cross Island Line.
Development begins 2030s. Lowest entry prices in the entire transformation cycle.
Stage 2: Physical Certainty (Growth Entry) - The Sweet Spot
MRT stations opening. BTO projects completing. Cranes are up.
You can SEE the transformation.
This is where the biggest profits are made — the gap between current pricing and future value is still wide, but the evidence is now visible.
Example: Bidadari. The Woodleigh Residences launched in 2019 at $1,733 psf. Most people still thought "cemetery."
But the MRT was there, roads were realigned, BTOs were completing.
Today's results:
| Unit Type | Purchase PSF | Sale PSF | Average Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3BR | $1,733 | $2,603–$2,839 | $617,000–$660,000 |
$660,000 profit. Because they entered at Physical Certainty before the crowd priced it in.
Example: Lentor. TEL MRT opened August 2021.
Watch the PSF escalation as certainty increased:
| Launch | Date | Avg PSF |
|---|---|---|
| Lentor Modern | Jul 2023 | $2,130 |
| Lentor Hills Residences | Sep 2022 | $2,116 |
| Hillock Green | Nov 2023 | $2,188 |
| Lentor Mansion | Mar 2024 | $2,266 |
| Lentor Mansion | Mar 2025 | $2,222 |
Early buyers at $2,130 psf are already in the strongest position. Every subsequent launch came in higher.
Stage 3: Lifestyle Certainty (Final Entry)
Area fully developed. Amenities complete. Vibrant community.
Profits are solid but moderate.
You're paying a premium for a finished neighbourhood — the explosive growth is already behind you.
Example: East Coast — Liv @ MB buyers averaged $275K–$354K profit.
Amber Park averaged $264K–$536K. Good numbers. But they entered at $2,368–$2,479 psf versus Woodleigh's $1,733 psf.
Lower entry. Higher profit. Same holding period.
That's the power of buying the right certainty stage.
Where Do Today's Launches Sit?
Notice the price gap. Projects in earlier certainty stages enter at significantly lower PSF.
If you're buying for maximum capital appreciation, you need to know which stage you're entering — and whether the pricing reflects genuine early-entry value or a mature-stage premium.
The Problem: Most Buyers Make This
Decision Backwards
Here's what typically happens.
You see an ad. Visit a showflat. Walk through a beautiful model unit.
Check if the monthly mortgage fits. Sign.
At no point did you ask:
What transformation stage is this area in?
Is the developer's pricing consistent with that stage?
Does my financial structure (ABSD, TDSR, CPF) actually support this purchase optimally?
That's a $2M+ decision based on a showflat visit and a PSF comparison.
The Entry Point Analysis For New Launch Buyers
After helping so many clients, we decided to make this available to the public.
We built this audit to give you clarity before you commit.
Step 1: Transformation Certainty Mapping
We plot your target project onto the 'Transformation Certainty Matrix' using 2025 URA Master Plan data, infrastructure timelines, and historical transaction records.
This helps you see which stage you're buying into.
Step 2: Developer Pricing Verification
We compare the launch price against resale transactions, other launches at the same certainty stage, and historical PSF data.
You'll know if you're getting a strategic entry price or overpaying for a mature location.
Step 3: Financial Profile Alignment
We review your ABSD exposure, TDSR headroom, and CPF strategy — including how upcoming policy changes (15-month wait-out relaxation, income ceiling adjustments) affect your specific situation.
At the end, you get one of three outcomes:
Green light — project, pricing, and finances are aligned. Proceed with confidence.
Redirect — better-positioned alternative at a similar price point.
Hold — timing isn't right. We'll outline what needs to change.
This Is For You If:
You're an HDB owner considering upgrading to a new launch
You're a private property owner looking at a second property where ABSD makes entry price critical
You're a first-time buyer who wants to make a $1M - $2M+ decision based on data, not showflat marketing
You're comparing multiple new launches and need an objective framework
Book Your Free Entry Point Analysis
Over 8,000 new private units are expected to launch in 2026.
Every one will have a beautiful showflat and a persuasive sales team.
None of them will tell you which transformation certainty stage their project sits in.
This is what the Free Entry Point Analysis gives you.
"The buyers who made $660,000 at Woodleigh Residences didn't get lucky. They understood transformation before the crowd did."
This Property Investor Framework is helping Singapore buyers avoid costly new launch mistakes.
After 30 months of cycle analysis and 500+ transaction reviews, we developed a system that identifies transformation-stage entries with precision.
After analysing 30 years of Singapore property cycles and over 2,400 new launch transactions, the Transformation Certainty Matrix identifies the precise entry point.
Who This Is For:
HDB owners considering upgrading
Private owners looking for a 2nd property
First-time buyers wanting data-driven decisions
Anyone comparing multiple new launches
Here are the results buyers have experienced with the Entry Point Analysis…
Esther C.
Tampines, Singapore
"Most agents just told me to act fast. Or to buy if it 'feels right' or to secure new launch price fast. What I like about the Entry Point Analysis is that it helps to identify a practical way for the best entry & development. I think that's very rare."
David Y.
Serangoon, Singapore
"I was skeptical because my previous launch appreciated slowly. This helped me to understand why, and gave me a new lens towards how to evaluate new launches in my area, instead of following gut instinct and show-room hype."
Joanne T.
Bishan, Singapore
"As first time buyers, this really helped us feel clear about our entry price and the rationale behind it, rather than feeling pressured into buying. The Transformation Certainty Matrix is a good way to evaluate. I highly recommend."
Entry Point Analysis — Enter The Right Projects!
Book Your Free Custom Analysis Now